A frontal system will bring rounds of showers and storms in the coming days, so have an indoor backup plan for outdoor events. But as the front moves out, expect a welcome change to the forecast.

Tonight & Tomorrow: The evening and overnight hours will be partly to mostly cloudy. Look for a wake-up temperature in the upper-60s. A line of storms will be approaching from the northwest, and there are some indications that it could arrive early Thursday. But these storms will weaken on approach, leading to a somewhat questionable morning rain coverage. Be prepared for the possibility of scattered showers and storms as the overall setup supports it; however, it’s not a slam-dunk opportunity. Regardless of what happens initially, there will be a midday lull in rain with a mixture of clouds and sun. As highs warm into the upper 80s, the atmosphere will support more isolated storms by late afternoon and early evening. Areas near and north of I-10/12 are favored to come across them. Downpours will occur with all storms, but a few could contain gusty winds and isolated hail.

Up Next: Friday will start on a dry note with peeks of sun allowing highs to rise into the middle and upper-80s. A recharged atmosphere will fire more scattered thunderstorms by afternoon. An approaching cold front will sustain off-and-on storms after dark. These will continue into Saturday, where additional clouds and moisture will keep highs near 80°. Again, downpours and a few stronger thunderstorms are not off the table on either day. While not raining at every point, rain gear will be a useful accessory during this timeframe. The cold front will finally pass through late Saturday, sweeping out the moisture.

Confidence is increasing that the front will move into the Gulf by Sunday, allowing drier air to rush in. This will lower humidity and eliminate rain for a few days. Morning lows might even dip into the 50s to start the new workweek before another warming trend begins.

River Flooding: The National Weather Service has issued a RIVER FLOOD WARNING for the Mississippi River at Red River Landing, Baton Rouge, Donaldsonville, and Reserve, as well as the Atchafalaya River at Morgan City.

• At Red River Landing, flood stage is at 48 feet. A crest of 59.5 feet is happening now, which is in moderate flood stage. At this level, the east bank levee will be topped, and the prison farmland between the two levees will be inundated. Angola Landing will be under water, closing the ferry there. All river islands along the reach from Red River Landing to Baton Rouge will remain inundated with recreational camps and river bottom farmland under water. This gauge will fall below flood stage around May 14.

• At Baton Rouge, flood stage is 35 feet. Major flooding is already occurring with a crest of 42.4 feet expected in the next day or so. Around these levels, the grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, and Alex Box Stadium. Levees protect the city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus at this level. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. This gauge will fall below flood stage around May 11.

• At Donaldsonville, the flood stage is at 27 feet. Moderate flooding is already occurring. A crest of 31 feet is expected in the next day or so. Around these levels, navigation becomes difficult for smaller river craft. Safety precautions for river traffic are urged. After cresting, the river will fall below flood stage around May 10.

• At Reserve, flood stage is at 22 feet. Minor flooding is already occurring. A crest of 23.8 feet is expected in the next day or so. Around these levels, slow-bell procedures will be enacted for river transportation. After cresting, the river will fall below flood stage around May 9.

• At Morgan City, flood stage is at 6 feet. A crest in minor flood stage at 6.5 feet is happening now. Levels are expected to remain steady through the weekend. At 6 feet, the city dock will be under water. Water will cover the lower end of Belleview Front Street in Berwick. Vessel traffic will be affected by stronger river currents. Vessel traffic safety rules will be strictly enforced by the U.S. Coast Guard. The river will fall below flood stage around May 9.

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-- Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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