The first outlook for the 2025 hurricane season is out! Colorado State University is predicting a slightly above average number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.
As for specific numbers, their forecast calls for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This is slightly above the seasonal average. Dr. Philip Klotzbach and the research team cited that the relatively warm Atlantic and likely absence of an El Niño are the primary reasons. There are still high levels of uncertainty when forecasting the strength of the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) phase.
Currently, we are in what is considered a La Niña. This will likely transition to an ENSO neutral phase (neither El Niño or La Niña) in the next couple of months. There still remains considerable uncertainty in what phase we will be in during the Summer and Fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more favorable environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. Keep in mind that El Niño and La Niña do not “cause” any one specific weather event; rather the two phases of ENSO influence change in global climate patterns that then increase the likelihood of specific weather events. Once again, ENSO is not “to blame” for any one storm system, temperature anomaly, or hurricane.
El Niño typically reduces the amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin because it increases the amount of vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear is strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that typically work to prevent circulations like tropical systems from becoming fully formed. The opposite is true for La Niña, which typically reduces the amount of vertical wind shear. When in a neutral phase, forecast for wind shear is neither above or below normal.
The forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using over three decades of past data. These seasonal forecasts were originally developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who was lead author on these predictions for over 20 years and continued as a co-author until his death in 2018. You can review the entire prediction, the scientific explanation and the reason such a forecast is made, RIGHT HERE . Seasonal updates are issued on June 1st, July 6th, and August 3rd.
The researchers at Colorado State University and the The Storm Station remind that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you,” so prepare accordingly. NOAA’s official outlook is expected in Late May. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, visit wbrz.com/weather and click on the hurricane center.
