Mother Nature’s fiercest storms can blossom in the blink of an eye. Take Hurricane Michael for instance, a powerful Category 5 storm that ravaged Florida in October 2018. Just three days prior, Michael was just a tropical storm. 

Such rapidly developing storms can pose big problems. But even smaller and relatively "weaker" storms can develop in a hurry and unleash significant impacts. All tropical systems, small or large, can pop up with little advance notice.

Prior to 2017, the National Hurricane Center could not issue alerts until a tropical system had formed per longstanding policy. But that has since changed due to advances in tropical forecasting. Thus, the “potential tropical cyclone” terminology was born.

A potential tropical cyclone is exactly what it sounds like — a system that has the potential to become a tropical cyclone (i.e., tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane). The National Hurricane Center now issues advisories for these systems only when impacts on land are imminent. Those include the classic forecast cone as well as watches and warnings. From 2017-2024, land impacts had to be expected within 48 hours to have a potential tropical cyclone designated. Starting in 2025, that window will increase to 72 hours. As a result, the terminology will likely be thrown around more often in the future.

Potential tropical cyclones are treated as if they are an active tropical cyclone in a sense, despite not having acquired full tropical characteristics. It’s a technicality. Ultimately, the goal is to increase awareness of an incoming system by giving more of a heads-up.

Although they may seem less threatening based on their name, that’s far from the case. Potential tropical cyclones often intensify and bring significant impacts to land in short order. 

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